What happened?
On 11 May, the Seventh National Population Census of the People's Republic of China (Chinese: 第七次全国人口普查 pinyin: Di Qi Ci Quanguo Renkou Pucha), better known as 2020 Chinese census was released. The census work began on 1 November 2020 and continued till 10 December 2020. The census covers all Chinese citizens living in mainland China, as well as those living abroad on temporary visas. Foreigners living in China for more than six months are also included. This release was originally planned for April but was delayed by a month.

The census data shows the population of mainland China as 1.41 billion. The data shows a fertility rate of 1.3 children per women for 2020 alone, which is at par with ageing societies like Japan. The data shows that the population in mainland China in the 2010-20 decade grew by 5.38 per cent to 1.41 billion. This increase in the population is the least since modern census-taking began in 1953. 

In the earlier decade 2000-10 the rate of population growth was 5.70 per cent. China's working-age population (16-59) in the current census declined by 40 million when compared with the last census of 2010. In 2019 China had recorded 14.65 million births; in 2020, it recorded 12 million births, a decrease by 18 per cent, making 2020 births the lowest since 1961. In 2016 China had recorded 18 million births. 

The elderly population, those above 65 years, comprises 13.5 per cent of the population, whereas in the last census in 2010, this segment of the population was 8.9 per cent. Census data also reveals an increase in the population movement to urban centres, with a decrease in the average household size to 2.62 persons. The UN had predicted the number of people living in the mainland would peak in 2030 before declining.

What is the background?
First, data collection accuracy. The census was conducted, for the first time, amidst a pandemic. The effect of the pandemic on data collection is not clearly known.  

Second, the falling birth rate. It is firmly established that the birth rate is falling despite the one-child policy being replaced by the two-child policy in 2016. The policy did increase the number of births for 2016 and 2017, but the impact was short-lived, and birth rates fell from 2018. This trend is directly attributed to China's economic and social development wherein there is a rise in delayed marriages, postponement of childbearing and a rise in costs of childraising combined with low public child care funding. The cost of raising a child, according to a 2005 report by a state think-tank, is 4,90,000 Yuan for an ordinary family in China. By 2020 the local media reported that the cost had risen to as high as 1.99 million Yuan, four times the 2005 figure. The two-child policy did not provide sufficient incentives to couples and particularly would-be mothers to have more children. Childbearing puts higher costs on the bodies, careers and personal lives of women as compared to men. Thus, incentivizing would-be mothers is of prime importance. 

Third, strained working population. The other fact which is categorically established is the decline in China's working-age population and simultaneous increase in the elderly population. In the same vein- at the two sessions meeting of China's essential government apparatus in March- premier Le Keqiang confirmed that China would raise the retirement age, which has remained the same for four decades at 60 for men and 55 for women.

What does it mean?
While it would be too early to say that China is in the midst of demographic crises, but surely it is beginning to lose it's demographic dividend. The trend indicates that population growth will continue to slow in the future. An increase in the elderly population means increased demand for workers to support the elderly, plus increased demand for health and social care. The data may also indicate that China might be faced with an irreversible population decline.